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Vietnam PMI October 2024 – manufacturing purchasing managers index
Cimigo Vietnam market research has collected the Vietnam PMI – manufacturing purchasing managers index since 2013. S&P Global compiles the Vietnam PMI S&P Global from responses to monthly questionnaires sent to purchasing managers in a panel of around 400 manufacturers.
October data showed that the Vietnamese manufacturing sector started to recover from the effects of September’s typhoon, recording renewed increases in both output and new orders. Some of the impacts of the storm and flooding lingered into October, however, limiting output growth and causing supplier delivery delays plus a build-up of outstanding business.
Rates of inflation of both input costs and output prices quickened, but remained muted. The S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®) posted 51.2 in October, up from 47.3 in September and back above the 50.0 no-change mark following the disruption caused to the sector by Typhoon Yagi in the previous month.
Business conditions have now strengthened in six of the past seven months, although the improvement in October was only modest. Central to the renewed strengthening of the health of the sector were returns to growth of both production and new orders as the recovery from the typhoon got underway. In each case, however, rates of expansion were softer than in the months leading up to September as some firms continued to face disruption following the storm and associated flooding.
Alongside the rise in total new business, new export orders also increased in October. That said, the rate of expansion was only marginal amid some reports of subdued international demand. With some firms reportedly still operating below full capacity due to the impacts of the typhoon, backlogs of work accumulated for the fifth month running, albeit to a lesser extent than the two-and-a-half year high posted in September.
Manufacturers continued to use stocks of finished goods to help fulfil orders at a time when production was partly hampered. Post-production inventories decreased at the fastest pace in three months.
Meanwhile, employment ticked down, reversing the rise seen in the previous month. Some firms reported that resignations had caused a drop in their staffing levels.
Suppliers’ delivery times lengthened for the second month running in October as storm disruption continued to affect transportation. Lead times lengthened to a lesser extent than in September, however. Purchasing activity returned to growth amid higher new orders and expected increases in production in the months ahead. That said, the rate of expansion was only marginal as some firms reported that they had sufficient holdings of
inputs.
Stocks of purchases continued to fall as inputs were used to support growth of production. That said, the rate of depletion was much weaker than the near-record seen in the previous survey period. Manufacturers reported a rise in input costs amid currency weakness and higher prices for oil, metals and transportation. In turn, firms increased their own selling prices. The rate of charge inflation was only slight, however, as some respondents indicated that competitive pressures had led them to offer discounts.
Rising sales, hopes for stable market conditions and business expansion plans all contributed to positive expectations regarding manufacturing production over the coming year. That said, optimism dipped to a nine-month low and was weaker than the series average. Some firms indicated that uncertainty around the US Presidential Election had dampened confidence.
Approach
The S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing PMI® is compiled by S&P Global from responses to monthly questionnaires sent to purchasing managers in a panel of around 400 manufacturers. The panel is stratified by detailed sector and company workforce size, based on contributions to GDP.
Survey responses are collected by Cimigo Vietnam in the second half of each month and indicate the direction of change compared to the previous month. A diffusion index is calculated for each survey variable. The index is the sum of the percentage of ‘higher’ responses and half the percentage of ‘unchanged’ responses.
The indices vary between 0 and 100, with a reading above 50 indicating an overall increase compared to the previous month, and below 50 an overall decrease. The indices are then seasonally adjusted.
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