Indonesia economic performance Q2 2024

Indonesia economic performance Q2 2024

This report provides a concise update on Indonesia’s economic performance up to June 2024.

Key areas covered include Indonesia macroeconomic indicators, export and import demand, the purchasing managers index, consumer confidence, and the retail sales index. Cimigo also discusses forecasts for the full year 2024 and expectations for the year ahead.

 

Business outlook: cautiously optimistic

Despite the manufacturing slowdown, the overall business outlook in Indonesia remains cautiously optimistic. The growth in exports (1.9%) and imports (1.8%) during this period points to a balanced trade environment​. These figures suggest that while businesses are proceeding with caution, the economic environment remains supportive of growth.

Cimigo projects that this balanced approach, with GDP growth of 5.05% in Q2 2024, will sustain GDP growth at a modest 5.1% throughout 2024. However, companies should prepare for potential challenges, including narrowing margins and external economic pressures.

 

Consumer confidence: waning but resilient

Consumer confidence in Indonesia has seen a decline, dropping 3% compared with June of the previous year​. This downward trend is particularly pronounced among older generations, while younger cohorts (Gen Z and Gen Y) remain relatively more optimistic about the future. The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) stood at 123.3 in June 2024, down from 121.7 in the previous year, signalling a more cautious outlook among consumers.

Despite the challenges in manufacturing and consumer sentiment, retail sales have shown a modest improvement. The real retail sales index recorded a 4.4% year-on-year increase as of June 2024, primarily driven by essential goods sectors such as food, beverages, tobacco, and motor vehicle parts​. These sectors have demonstrated resilience, suggesting that consumer spending is recovering, albeit unevenly.

 

For more details, please download the Indonesia Economic Performance Q2 2024 from Cimigo.