Vietnam’s economy 2025: strong Q1 growth meets global trade uncertainty

Richard Burrage
Apr 11, 2025

Vietnam’s economy in 2025 surged with a strong first-quarter performance, posting impressive gains across GDP, industrial output, retail sales, and international tourism. However, the optimism is shattered by escalating global tensions, most notably the U.S. government’s abrupt tariff hike on Vietnamese imports. While Q1 2025 was buoyant, the emerging trade headwinds and mounting uncertainty have prompted a sharp downward revision in Cimigo’s Vietnam full-year GDP forecast — from 6.6% to 4.7%.

1. Strong Q1 GDP growth of 6.9%, but Cimigo forecast slashed to 4.7%

While Q1 GDP rose 6.9% year-on-year, Cimigo’s annual outlook for Vietnam’s economy in 2025 has been downgraded from a previous forecast of 6.6% to 4.7%.

The revision stems from the U.S. imposing a 10% tariff hike on Vietnamese imports (effective immediately). For example, a pair of Nike trainers (sneakers) already attract a 20% import tariff. This has increased to 30% with no warning.  A higher 46% hike has been postponed by 90 days. This postponed hike will mean a pair of Nike trainers will attract a 66% import tariff.

U.S.-led trade pressure has begun to weigh heavily on sentiment.

2. Industrial production grows 7.8% yet faces FDI headwinds

Despite a strong Q1, investment in capacity expansion is expected to slow. With global buyers reconsidering sourcing strategies, Vietnam’s industrial growth may lose steam in the second half of 2025.

3. Retail sales boom by 10.9%, but consumers turning cautious

Retail and services sales grew 10.9%, supported by a short-term consumer confidence boost around TET – the Lunar New Year celebrations. However, early signs of caution are surfacing, particularly for discretionary categories.

4. Exports hit US$103 billion, now facing tariff pressure

Vietnam’s exports rose 11%, but the U.S. tariff action — already in effect at 10% and potentially surging to 46% — threatens trade volume, especially for electronics, textiles, and furniture.

5. Imports rise 17%, reflecting raw material needs and cost pressures

Imports reached US$100 billion, driven by industrial demand and re-stocking. However, continued cost increases could narrow manufacturing margins and affect downstream pricing.

6. FDI disbursement is up 7%, but delays are now expected

Vietnam attracted US$4.96 billion in FDI in Q1, yet several investment decisions are being postponed or reevaluated due to rising geopolitical risk and perceived instability in global trade.

7. Tourism recovery remains strong: 6 million inbound visitors

Tourism saw a 31% YoY increase in international visitors in Q1 — one of the few sectors insulated from the trade war — with a strong recovery in hospitality, retail, and experiences.

8. CPI and inflation stable — for now

With the CPI at 103.22, inflation remains in check. However, rising import costs may soon begin filtering into prices, especially if the tariff situation escalates.

9. Manufacturing PMI sluggish at 50.5

The PMI reading 50.5 shows marginal expansion, but recent supply chain disruptions and investment freezes hint at possible contraction in coming quarters.

10. Business confidence sliding

Sentiment among both Vietnamese and foreign businesses is softening. Concerns about trade policy, cost volatility, and geopolitical alignment lead to delayed hiring, paused capital expenditure and postponed investments.

vietnam's-economy-2025-Q1

End.

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It's a great experience to work with Cimigo team for 2024 Market Research project. The team was highly professional, proactive and supportive with many complicated requests from us in such limited time. I appreciate our cooperation and will definitely recommend Cimigo for upcoming similar projects.

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Cimigo’s responsiveness and insights exceeded expectations; I highly recommend their market research services. Atlas tasked Cimigo with analysing and prioritising opportunities across four international markets. Cimigo mapped the Architecture, Construction, and Engineering landscape in each market, identified and prioritised opportunities, derived a dollar value by opportunity and provided details on target prospects and projects. This data-driven approach has enabled Atlas to develop services and focus resources on where we can bring the most value in our international markets.

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Working with Cimigo has been incredibly rewarding. Their exceptional service and unwavering commitment to excellence have been truly impressive. Together, we've successfully completed projects ranging from fabric care like detergents and fabric softener to home essentials like floor cleaner and dishwashing liquid in both urban and rural settings, showcasing Cimigo's versatility and dedication to reaching diverse markets. Thanks to Cimigo's dedication and expertise, we secured a major project with our client last year. I'm grateful for our partnership and excited for future collaborations.

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Cimigo has been an excellent partner for AmCham. They provided insightful feedback during the planning phase of our project and offered suggestions to ensure that we met our goals. Their analysis was comprehensive, thoughtful, and accurate, and I appreciated their customer service skills – I always felt that Cimigo had our best interests at heart. I’m very much looking forward to working with Cimigo again in the near future!

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I have never seen or had support for our business like we have received from Cimigo Vietnam. The depth & understanding of our business shows how well you have studied both Jardines Distribution Inc. and Koppers Performance Chemicals. We, (JDI & KPC), really appreciate the efforts the whole Cimigo team have put into your research. The help to connect potential distributors for both our Industrial and retail products are absolutely on point. I will have no hesitation in recommending Cimigo Vietnam to any company wanting to venture into the Vietnam market.

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Cimigo is one of the top research companies in Vietnam that provides very good services and actionable insights. We have the pleasure of working with Cimigo. With extensive knowledge of Vietnamese consumers, Cimigo keeps bringing value to our company. We look forward to working with them in the future.

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The research provided by Cimigo provided our clients with very specific insights into consumer behaviour in Viet Nam. What I liked was the way Cimigo interpreted these insights to develop a clear call to action for our clients, which they are responding to with confidence.

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Cimigo conducted a large, nationally representative demand forecasting study in Vietnam for us, including a discreet choice component, to assess demand for potential new male contraceptives in development to support funding decisions by The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The research was additionally complex by linking interviews with men and separate interviews with their female partners. The Cimigo team was were professional, knowledgeable and adaptive through the process of understanding our needs and collaborating to find solutions that would work, resulting in a very successful study.

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I've had the pleasure to work with Richard and Cimigo over many years and across multiple markets. Cimigo was a key partner in our business decision making process including market entry strategy, brand positioning development, shopper insights, brand equity tracking, and consumer need state segmentation development. The Cimigo team are local market experts who understand consumer culture like no other. I would highly recommend them.

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Cimigo is our go-to agency in Indonesia. They're great collaborators, work hard to meet our deliverables, and are a joy to work with.

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Cimigo is the research agency that I appreciate for their expertise and customer service. Cimigo understand well the business context for each of project hence they can design the research to best fit with the objectives. The optimization on methodologies, sample size and questionnaire bring the value to the projects I have worked with them. Cimigo can go beyond data and give me valuable insights for each of research projects based on their knowledge and experience with the industry. All of these support me well to navigate the brand strategy in short term and long term.

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We partnered with Cimigo on assessing TET campaign launch focusing on improving booking through our platform. Cimigo, provided its customized campaign evaluation technique based on Cimigo Online Communities that fully meets our requirement in terms of type of respondents and expected timelines. The report provided insightful findings with benchmarks to identify the next course of action for launching the campaign. We will recommend Cimigo team and its Online communities for its quality reporting and scale of coverage.

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Cimigo is a market research company with many experienced and knowledgeable experts that I have collaborated with. I absolutely trust their service quality.

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Cido have worked with Cimigo in Vietnam for more than 10 years. All our projects, both qualitative and quantitative, have been delivered in a timely manner with a high standard of quality throughout. Cimigo’s client service team has provided great support over the years which has ensured smooth project execution and helped us to deliver work on time and exceed our client’s expectations.

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I have partnered with Cimigo over the past 15 years. Most recently Cimigo engaged us to collaborate on an unusually tough new product development project, which was akin to selling ice to Eskimos. Cimigo bought alive the consumer, her shopping journey, her cooking rituals and potential brand promises. Cimigo inspired our creative team to build alternate brand propositions and accompanying package designs. Cimigo then went back to consumers to evaluate, iterate and optimise these in focus groups. The Doodle team were able to observe this process and subtly adjust the expression of the brand between focus groups. The result of this great collaboration was a winning brand proposition and packaging design that hit consumer needs head on whilst appealing to their hearts.

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We have worked together with Cimigo many times. The findings from Cimigo are factual, accurate & reliable. They deliver value from the voice of our customer so we can easily determine the next step. Working with Cimigo feels like not only building a partnership but a sense of family. Very amazing to work with Cimigo, they always go beyond our expectations.

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Cimigo digs deep to understand the key issues we need to address. Then, they quickly customize a highly suitable research approach to provide us the insights we need to achieve our breakthrough business targets. From tough questions to aha answers in just a few easy conversations!

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Our relationship with Cimigo goes back many years. We engaged Cimigo to provide an independent view on what our customers and potential customers think of our company. The insights from Cimigo were very helpful for us to better understand the Vietnam market and also in developing our brand manifesto.

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As a creative director I have used the services of Cimigo for the past 15 years when developing communications, so I know their style, innovations and resources well. Most recently we tested copy for print, out of home and digital communications to put an Australian colloquialism into a Vietnamese context. A job and budget so small I felt it was highly likely to fall through the cracks. I was astounded at their incredible response. From their advice and style of how we should present the stimulus material, to their cross-reference manoeuvres used in the testing. Their over-delivering response, was to an embarrassing level. We walked away with a clear winner and could present back to our client with confidence and clarity. Cimigo made us look great. Plus they even threw in a few extra insights on the awareness and perception of the product in Vietnam.

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I want to thank you again for your help and the great job the Cimigo team did in the home appliance project! The moderation was super and organisation upfront was also perfect.

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It was a great pleasure working with you. Especially a big thank you for your flexibility, quality and brilliant service!

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Cimigo have built and managed both our employee and customer experience programme since 2012. We have a complex suite of services with in-patient, out-patient, surgical, diagnostic, consultative and facilities to account for, all amongst patients who are naturally sensitive regarding their privacy and experience. Yet Cimigo have designed a system to measure customer experience across multiple languages and cultures and direct us in improving this experience. Our net promoter score (NPS) has grown as a direct result of changes implemented based on this direction and continuously listening to patient feedback. The NPS growth correlates directly to new patient numbers and improved profitability, as happier customers drives our business growth.

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We have worked with Cimigo recently and highly recommend them. Cimigo have made great recommendations on the price elasticity.

Matt Thwaites - Commercial Director

Cimigo designed a customer experience programme for Coats that reached into Vietnamese, Chinese and Korean customers across various levels of seniority. Cimigo instilled the importance of the voice of the customer within our executive committee. This led to fundamental changes in our structure, services and speed to market. Significant investments were made behind these improvement programmes, for example in reducing delivery times and in managing specialised custom orders, which in turn have led to improved revenue streams and higher margin sales.
Cimigo designed a customer experience programme for Coats that reached into Vietnamese, Chinese and Korean customers across various levels of seniority. Cimigo instilled the importance of the voice of the customer within our executive committee. This led to fundamental changes in our structure, services and speed to market. Significant investments were made behind these improvement programmes, for example in reducing delivery times and in managing specialised custom orders, which in turn have led to improved revenue streams and higher margin sales.

Aashish Kapoor - Head of Marketing

Cimigo - The best “Glocal” market research firm in Vietnam with whom we have developed a great partnership since many years. While the quality of research and findings are of top standard, the added advantage being the local insights that Richard and his team are able to provide in helping us make important decisions.
Cimigo - The best “Glocal” market research firm in Vietnam with whom we have developed a great partnership since many years. While the quality of research and findings are of top standard, the added advantage being the local insights that Richard and his team are able to provide in helping us make important decisions.

Kelly Vo - Founder & Host

I respect Cimigo not only because of their dedication, meticulousness, and high-quality services but also how much they care about the local community here. I proposed the idea of doing a survey with the digital young generation on the topic of social impact and leadership. I wanted to identify, shape, and develop our content so that could really speak to the heart of the problems and empower young Vietnamese to take action on social impact in Vietnam. The Cimigo team agreed pro-bono to help without hesitation. The research findings are truly helpful in providing us a deeper understanding of our targeted audiences, what they need and are concerned about in life. The results show us how we can help them to achieve their goals and dreams. It is no longer a shot in the dark!
I respect Cimigo not only because of their dedication, meticulousness, and high-quality services but also how much they care about the local community here. I proposed the idea of doing a survey with the digital young generation on the topic of social impact and leadership. I wanted to identify, shape, and develop our content so that could really speak to the heart of the problems and empower young Vietnamese to take action on social impact in Vietnam. The Cimigo team agreed pro-bono to help without hesitation. The research findings are truly helpful in providing us a deeper understanding of our targeted audiences, what they need and are concerned about in life. The results show us how we can help them to achieve their goals and dreams. It is no longer a shot in the dark!

Thanyachat Auttanukune - Board of Management

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Cimigo consistently carries out researches with international standards and consistently bring about truly mind opening local insights.

Hamish Glendinning - Business Lead

Cimigo not only delivered an exceptional piece of qualitative research for us, but provided hugely valuable direction when it came to product development and market positioning which we have since implemented. We can’t wait to work with the team again.
Cimigo not only delivered an exceptional piece of qualitative research for us, but provided hugely valuable direction when it came to product development and market positioning which we have since implemented. We can’t wait to work with the team again.

Thuy Le - Consumer Insight Manager

Pharmacity started a Brand Health Check with Cimigo in 2020 and we were immediately impressed with their great consultancy and supportive spirit. The study had interesting analysis and insights which helped us efficiently shape the marketing plan and direction moving forward. We are now working with Cimigo on a tracking basis to continuously monitor and foster our brand performance.
Pharmacity started a Brand Health Check with Cimigo in 2020 and we were immediately impressed with their great consultancy and supportive spirit. The study had interesting analysis and insights which helped us efficiently shape the marketing plan and direction moving forward. We are now working with Cimigo on a tracking basis to continuously monitor and foster our brand performance.

Richard Willis - Director

When we were looking to develop one of the worlds the leading economic indicator in Vietnam, the Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®) Cimigo showed an immediate understanding of our needs and showed their understanding of the Vietnamese market. IHS Markit has now been working with Cimigo since 2013. Every month Cimigo continues to provide high quality data, a representative panel, on time data and great customer service. We look forward to many more years of working together.
When we were looking to develop one of the worlds the leading economic indicator in Vietnam, the Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®) Cimigo showed an immediate understanding of our needs and showed their understanding of the Vietnamese market. IHS Markit has now been working with Cimigo since 2013. Every month Cimigo continues to provide high quality data, a representative panel, on time data and great customer service. We look forward to many more years of working together.

Ha Dinh - Project Lead

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I have worked with CIMIGO on educational research for over 4 months. This is extremely impressive to me by the way CIMIGO approaches, cooperating and supporting me during the research launched. Specifically, the design for both qualitative and quantitative research are practical and logical with accurate questionnaires and appropriate interviews methodology for different respondents. Moreover, the outcomes of this research helps us to recognize our opportunities in the current English Language Training Market and understand profoundly our customer needs, behaviours and expectations when sending their children to us.

Geert Heestermans - Marketing Director

Cimigo is and will be our strategic research agency. We are happy with your work and the way our projects are handled. You walked the extra mile and we are grateful for that.
Cimigo is and will be our strategic research agency. We are happy with your work and the way our projects are handled. You walked the extra mile and we are grateful for that.

Louise Knox - Consumer Technical Insights

Just to say a huge thank you for all of the film footage. We are absolutely delighted with it all. The Vox Pops are really interesting and have turned out very well – those ladies were great at talking spontaneously. Cimigo did a great job. Thank you for your patience and perseverance with getting this off the ground.
Just to say a huge thank you for all of the film footage. We are absolutely delighted with it all. The Vox Pops are really interesting and have turned out very well – those ladies were great at talking spontaneously. Cimigo did a great job. Thank you for your patience and perseverance with getting this off the ground.

Aimee Shear - Senior Research Executive

We partnered up with the Cimigo team on what was a particularly challenging project – we were faced with numerous timeline delays and logistical concerns – yet Cimigo were incredibly accommodating through their patience, flexibility and commitment. Not only were Cimigo supportive during the set up of our project, but we were really impressed by the outputs delivered – Cimigo were insightful, rich and very comprehensive. Cimigo were brilliant partners to work with and we look forward to working with them again.
We partnered up with the Cimigo team on what was a particularly challenging project – we were faced with numerous timeline delays and logistical concerns – yet Cimigo were incredibly accommodating through their patience, flexibility and commitment. Not only were Cimigo supportive during the set up of our project, but we were really impressed by the outputs delivered – Cimigo were insightful, rich and very comprehensive. Cimigo were brilliant partners to work with and we look forward to working with them again.

Dennis Kurnia - Head of Consumer Insights

Over the last 5 years I have worked with Cimigo on a wide array of projects, ranging from market segmentation to product testing. At all times, I found Cimigo to be swift in response and providing high quality insights and business recommendations applicable to our business. Furthermore, I am satisfied with Cimigo fieldwork quality despite the crunched timeline that we had in some projects. Overall, I highly recommend Cimigo for their professionalism.
Over the last 5 years I have worked with Cimigo on a wide array of projects, ranging from market segmentation to product testing. At all times, I found Cimigo to be swift in response and providing high quality insights and business recommendations applicable to our business. Furthermore, I am satisfied with Cimigo fieldwork quality despite the crunched timeline that we had in some projects. Overall, I highly recommend Cimigo for their professionalism.

Tania Desela - Senior Product Manager

It was a pleasure working with Cimigo. Their expertise in consumer and market research was a significant benefit as they assisted our organization in understanding our market position in more detail and validating our hypothesis in go-to-market strategy. We were more than happy with the findings and would definitely recommend Cimigo.
It was a pleasure working with Cimigo. Their expertise in consumer and market research was a significant benefit as they assisted our organization in understanding our market position in more detail and validating our hypothesis in go-to-market strategy. We were more than happy with the findings and would definitely recommend Cimigo.

Thu Phung - CTI Manager

Cimigo is not the type of agency that "fill in the template", but it's customized as per the needs and expectations of Client. Cimigo makes research interesting by applying new approaches to address the business issue, for example, it's known by default that product test is CLT, but at Cimigo, we did group debate for deeper understandings and insights and that resulted as a winning product which is selling well in the market. Last but not least, Cimigo makes me understand that research is a journey, not just a project."
Cimigo is not the type of agency that "fill in the template", but it's customized as per the needs and expectations of Client. Cimigo makes research interesting by applying new approaches to address the business issue, for example, it's known by default that product test is CLT, but at Cimigo, we did group debate for deeper understandings and insights and that resulted as a winning product which is selling well in the market. Last but not least, Cimigo makes me understand that research is a journey, not just a project."

Linda Yeoh - CMI Manager

We have worked with Cimigo over 2 projects in Vietnam. Cimigo has proven to be reliable being on top of the projects, managing different stakeholders and business objectives. They are flexible in terms of ways of working and are able to cope with last minute changes. The research findings (Quant + Qual) have helped us understand Vietnamese in a deeper level, allowing us to make clear decisions to be successful in the market. Thank you Cimigo team for supporting us.
We have worked with Cimigo over 2 projects in Vietnam. Cimigo has proven to be reliable being on top of the projects, managing different stakeholders and business objectives. They are flexible in terms of ways of working and are able to cope with last minute changes. The research findings (Quant + Qual) have helped us understand Vietnamese in a deeper level, allowing us to make clear decisions to be successful in the market. Thank you Cimigo team for supporting us.